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West Africans Vulnerable To Climate Change Impacts On Marine Resources
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Climate change impacts to fishery resources in West African countries, including that required by many coastal communities such as in Benin, are projected to reduce livelihoods and increase food insecurity substantially by the middle of this century Marine Photobank |
Various studies have shown that changing ocean conditions as a result of climate change are likely to affect the productivity of marine fisheries and that this would occur primarily via shifts in species distribution and changes in primary productivity. Tropical regions in general are expected to show a decline in maximum catch potential whereas high-latitude countries such as Norway, Iceland and Greenland would see an increase. For those tropical regions and communities with a heavy reliance on fishery resources a decline in fisheries productivity could have significant impacts on human well-being.
What this could mean for the coastal countries of West Africa in particular is the subject of a study published in the most recent issue of the African Journal of Marine Science. The study’s authors, from the University of British Columbia’s Fisheries Centre, note that fish and fisheries are hugely important in the region where they contribute as much as 50 per cent of the animal protein consumed while providing fisheries-related livelihoods for an estimated 760,000 people. Fishery resources here, however, are already overfished, in large part from foreign distant water fleets though intensive artisanal fishing and illegal fisheries are important contributors. Furthermore, regional food security is expected to be under tremendous stress by 2050 due to rapid population growth and projected declines in agricultural food production from climate change.
Fourteen countries were included in the study, from Western Sahara in the north to Nigeria in the south, and the effects of projected changes in fishery catches on food and nutritional security and local economies by the 2050s under two emission scenarios – SRES A1B and ‘constant 2000 level’ – were analysed. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SRES A1B scenario assumes a greenhouse gas concentration in Earth’s atmosphere that has stabilized at 720 parts per million (ppm) by 2100 (the current level is about 390 ppm) and is considered a conservative scenario (a world characterized by rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies, and moderate use of resources with a balanced use of technologies). This means, as the research team notes, that the projected impacts on human well-being in this study are also conservative. The ‘constant 2000 level’ scenario, included for comparison, assumes a greenhouse gas concentration of 360 ppm by the 2050s, the same level as in 2000.
Total annual landings for all 14 countries combined were projected to decline under both emission scenarios by the 2050s with a potential loss of some 670,000 tonnes or 26 per cent of current landings under SRES A1B. Six countries – Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Togo, Nigeria and Sierra Leone – will be particularly impacted with declines in landings of up to and over 50 per cent. The impacts on food security could be especially severe for Sierra Leone, Liberia and Togo where over 40 per cent of their populations are already undernourished. Other countries such as Senegal and Mauritania are net exporters of fish so projected declines in landings would be expected to affect their economies as well as threatening food security.
The annual total landed value of fishery products for all countries combined is projected to decline by 21 per cent under SRES A1B, from the current US$732 to US$577 million in constant 2000 dollars by 2050. Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo will be heavily impacted with declines in landed values reaching 40 per cent. Other economic sectors such as boat building, fish processing and international transport will also be affected and losses here are estimated at US$156 million per year under SRES A1B. Combined with the decline in landed value results in a total loss of approximately US$311 million per year to the West African economy by the 2050s. Also impacted by declines in fishery resources will be the number of fisheries-related jobs which are projected by the study under SRES A1B to be reduced by some 390,000, a decline of almost 50 per cent.
The declines in numbers of livelihoods and the total landed value of fisheries are also likely to affect food security indirectly, according to the study’s authors, by reducing purchasing power to buy higher calorie food. This could be particularly acute given the limited alternative employment opportunities in the region.
Population growth, meanwhile, is expected to increase seafood demand and the researchers calculated that if the per capita supply of seafood is to be maintained at the current level in West Africa by the 2050s (which is consistent with recent trends) then fishery landings would need to increase by five times over what is currently landed. Only two countries – Guinea-Bissau and Mauritania – would meet the projected seafood demand and six countries – Western Sahara, Togo, Nigeria, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire and Benin – would have a projected catch under SRES A1B that would be less than 15 per cent of the projected demand. The study’s authors suggest that the large discrepancy between the projected demand and declining supply are likely to cause an increase in seafood prices which could further restrict seafood access by poor communities.
While aquaculture in many parts of the world will make up some of the shortfall in marine fisheries production this is not expected to happen in West Africa, at least in the short-term, according to the study’s authors. Not only is the industry poorly developed in the region but prospects are limited by a number of factors such as a low production base, lack of viable infrastructure and political instability. Nonetheless, the study’s authors conclude, action can be taken. However, West African countries will need to “(1) know the state of their fish stocks and ecosystems; (2) know the value (in a broad sense) of their fishery resources; and (3) strengthen fisheries management, especially monitoring, control and surveillance.” Until this happens they should refrain from engaging in the global fish trade, agree to foreign fisheries access arrangements or provide fisheries subsidies that are not ecologically, economically or socially beneficial to coastal communities.
Source: Lam, V.W.J. et al. Climate change impacts on fisheries in West Africa: implications for economic, food and nutritional security. African Journal of Marine Science 34(1): 103-117.
Contact: Vicky Lam, Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
E-mail: v.lam@fisheries.ubc.ca
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