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- Allison, E.H., Ratner, B.D., Åsgård, B., Willmann, R., Pomeroy, R., and Kurien, J. Rights-based fisheries governance: from fishing rights to human rights. Fish and Fisheries 13(1): 14-29, 2012.
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In the last twenty years, policy prescriptions for addressing the global crisis in fisheries have centred on strengthening fisheries governance through clarifying exclusive individual or community rights of access to fishery resources. With a focus on small-scale developing-country fisheries in particular, we argue that basing the case for fishery governance reform on assumed economic incentives for resource stewardship is insufficient when there are other sources of insecurity in people's lives that are unrelated to the state of fishery resources. We argue that more secure, less vulnerable fishers make more effective and motivated fishery managers in the context of participatory or rights-based fisheries governance, and we further suggest that insecurity among fishers living in poverty can be most effectively addressed by social and political development that invokes the existing legal framework supporting the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. This perspective goes well beyond the widely advocated notion of 'rights-based fishing' and aligns what fishery sector analysts call the 'rights-based approach' with the same terminology used in the context of international development. Embedding the fisheries governance challenge within a broader perspective of human rights enhances the chances of achieving both human development and resource sustainability outcomes in small-scale fisheries of developing countries.
- Gruskin, S., Ahmed, S., Bogecho, D., Ferguson, L., Hanefeld, J., MacCarthy, S., Raad, Z., and Steiner, R. Human rights in health systems frameworks: What is there, what is missing and why does it matter? Global Public Health 7(4): 337-351, 2012.
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Global initiatives and recent G8 commitments to health systems strengthening have brought increased attention to factors affecting health system performance. While equity concerns and human rights language appear often in the global health discourse, their inclusion in health systems efforts beyond rhetorical pronouncements is limited. Building on recent work assessing the extent to which features compatible with the right to health are incorporated into national health systems, we examine how health systems frameworks have thus far integrated human rights concepts and human rights-based approaches to health in their conceptualisation. Findings point to the potential value of the inclusion of human rights in these articulations to increase the participation or involvement of clients in health systems, to broaden the concept of equity, to bring attention to laws and policies beyond regulation and to strengthen accountability mechanisms.
- Sand, P.H. Fortress conservation trumps human rights? Journal of Environment and Development 21(1): 36-39, 2012.
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The new 'marine protected area' proclaimed in 2010 in the Chagos Archipelago (British Indian Ocean Territory [BIOT]) raises a fundamental conflict between colonial nature protection and the human rights of the indigenous Chagos islanders who were expelled to make way for a U.S. military base, and whose resettlement in the archipelago the U.K. government now seeks to prevent by invoking global environmental concerns.
- Boyd, D.R. The implicit constitutional right to live in a healthy environment. Review of European Community and International Environmental Law 20(2): 171-179, 2011.
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The right to a healthy environment has rapidly gained constitutional protection around the world. In at least twenty countries, recognition of the right to a healthy environment first occurred through court decisions determining that it is implicit in other constitutional provisions, primarily the right to life. The right is now recognized explicitly in the constitutions of 90 countries spanning Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean and Africa, and is recognized as an implicit and enforceable constitutional right in at least twelve additional countries. The decisions of international courts and tribunals provide further support for concluding that the right to life necessarily includes the right to a healthy environment.
- Perry, R.I., Ommer, R.E., Barange, M., Jentoft, S., Neis, B., and Sumaila, U.R. Marine social-ecological responses to environmental change and the impacts of globalization. Fish and Fisheries 12(4): 427-450, 2011.
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Marine social-ecological systems consist of interactive ecological and human social elements so that changes in ecological systems affect fishing-dependent societies and vice versa. This study compares the responses of marine ecological and fishing-dependent systems to environmental change and the impacts of globalization, using four case-studies: NE Atlantic (Barents Sea), NW Atlantic (Newfoundland), SE Atlantic (Namibia) and the equatorial Atlantic (Ghana). Marine ecological systems cope with short-time changes by altering migration and distribution patterns, changing species composition, and changing diets and growth rates; over the longer term, adaptive changes lead to increased turn-over rates and changes in the structure and function of the system. Fishing communities cope with short-term change through intensification and diversification of fishing, migration and 'riding out the storm'. Over the longer term, adaptive changes in policy and fisheries governance can interact with social-ecological change to focus on new fisheries, economic diversification, re-training, out-migration and community closures. Marine social-ecological systems can ultimately possess rapid adaptive capacity in their ecological components, but reduced adaptive capacity in society. Maintaining the diversity of response capabilities on short and longer time scales, among both ecological and human fishing systems, should be a key policy objective. The challenge is to develop robust governance approaches for coupled marine social-ecological systems that can respond to short- and long-term consequences of global change.
- Virji, H., Padgham, J., and Seipt, C. Capacity building to support knowledge systems for resilient development – approaches, actions, and needs. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 4(1): 115-121, 2012.
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Sustained action by society to support timely and effective actions to deal with global environmental changes must be underpinned by systems of knowledge generation and exchange that are capable of engaging a wide range of decision makers. Building more robust knowledge systems to support resilient development requires significant and well-targeted investments in education and training that bolster scientific capacities, and in communication approaches that foster better interaction of scientists with practitioner and policy communities. Reflecting on nearly two decades of capacity building experience of START and its partner institutions, we review the key principles that should underlie long-term capacity building efforts. We note that investments in capacity building are in themselves an effective adaptation response to global change. Strong and well-supported scientific networks are an indispensible component of capacity building, as they are a key source for new knowledge that enables continual and dynamic adaptation practice. We illustrate guiding principles and priority areas for capacity building that promote an integrated and comprehensive approach to capacity building in the context of the emerging Earth System Science Initiative and other programs, such as Integrated Research on Disaster Reduction, Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security, People and Ecosystem Services, and the Program of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation.
- Misselhorn, A., Aggarwal, P., Ericksen, P., Gregory, P., Horn-Phathanothai, L., Ingram, J., and Wiebe, K. A vision for attaining food security. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 4(1): 7-17, 2012.
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Food is fundamental to human wellbeing and development. Increased food production remains a cornerstone strategy in the effort to alleviate global food insecurity. But despite the fact that global food production over the past half century has kept ahead of demand, today around one billion people do not have enough to eat, and a further billion lack adequate nutrition. Food insecurity is facing mounting supply-side and demand-side pressures; key among these are climate change, urbanisation, globalisation, population increases, disease, as well as a number of other factors that are changing patterns of food consumption. Many of the challenges to equitable food access are concentrated in developing countries where environmental pressures – including climate change, population growth and other socio-economic issues – are concentrated. Together these factors impede people's access to sufficient, nutritious food; chiefly through affecting livelihoods, income and food prices. Food security and human development go hand in hand, and their outcomes are co-determined to a significant degree. The challenge of food security is multi-scalar and cross-sector in nature. Addressing it will require the work of diverse actors to bring sustained improvements inhuman development and to reduce pressure on the environment. Unless there is investment in future food systems that are similarly cross-level, cross-scale and cross-sector, sustained improvements in human wellbeing together with reduced environmental risks and scarcities will not be achieved. This paper reviews current thinking, and outlines these challenges. It suggests that essential elements in a successfully adaptive and proactive food system include: learning – through connectivity between scales to local experience and technologies – high levels of interaction between diverse actors and sectors ranging from primary producers to retailers and consumers, and use of frontier technologies.
- Le Manach, F., Gough, C., Harris, A., Humber, F., Harper, S., and Zeller, D. Unreported fishing, hungry people and political turmoil: the recipe for a food security crisis in Madagascar? Marine Policy 36(1): 218-225, 2012.
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Madagascar, the world's fourth largest island, is one of the world's poorest developing countries, and its people depend heavily on marine resources for subsistence and income. Exports of these resources and foreign fishing access agreements are also important, at least from a large-scale economic perspective. In recent years, concerns have been voiced amongst local fishers and industry groups regarding the growth of the country's fishing effort. Despite these concerns, existing knowledge of the scale, composition and trends of Malagasy fisheries remains poor, and there is negligible information regarding unreported catches and illegal fishing in Madagascar's waters. Small-scale fisheries, which are often substantial in developing countries such as Madagascar, are often unreported or underestimated. Unfortunately, fisheries legislations, management plans and foreign fishing access agreements are often influenced by these incomplete data, leading to serious over-estimations of resource availability. This also appears to be the situation in Madagascar, where the reconstruction of total catches by all Malagasy fisheries sectors conducted here showed that total catches between 1950 and 2008 were twice the volume reported by national fisheries agencies. Most importantly, much of the subsistence sector is missing from official statistics, and signs of decline have already been observed in several stocks, suggesting that current levels of catches are likely to be exceeding sustainable yields. This has profound implications for the economic and ecological sustainability of fisheries, as well as food security in a country where people rely heavily on the ocean for their daily protein needs and livelihoods.
- Bowen, K.J., Friel, S., Ebi, K., Butler, C.D., Miller, F., and McMichael, A.J. Governing for a healthy population: towards an understanding of how decision-making will determine our global health in a changing climate. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 9(1): 55-72, 2012.
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Enhancing the adaptive capacity of individuals, communities, institutions and nations is pivotal to protecting and improving human health and well-being in the face of systemic social inequity plus dangerous climate change. However, research on the determinants of adaptive capacity in relation to health, particularly concerning the role of governance, is in its infancy. This paper highlights the intersections between global health, climate change and governance. It presents an overview of these key concerns, their relation to each other, and the potential that a greater understanding of governance may present opportunities to strengthen policy and action responses to the health effects of climate change. Important parallels between addressing health inequities and sustainable development practices in the face of global environmental change are also highlighted. We propose that governance can be investigated through two key lenses within the earth system governance theoretical framework; agency and architecture. These two governance concepts can be evaluated using methods of social network research and policy analysis using case studies and is the subject of further research.
- Rohr, J.R., Dobson, A.P., Johnson, P.T.J., Kilpatrick, A.M., Paull, S.H., Raffel, T.R., Ruiz-Moreno, D., and Thomas, M.B. Frontiers in climate change-disease research. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 26(6): 270-277, 2011.
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The notion that climate change will generally increase human and wildlife diseases has garnered considerable public attention, but remains controversial and seems inconsistent with the expectation that climate change will also cause parasite extinctions. In this review, we highlight the frontiers in climate change-infectious disease research by reviewing knowledge gaps that make this controversy difficult to resolve. We suggest that forecasts of climate-change impacts on disease can be improved by more interdisciplinary collaborations, better linking of data and models, addressing confounding variables and context dependencies, and applying metabolic theory to host-parasite systems with consideration of community-level interactions and functional traits. Finally, although we emphasize host-parasite interactions, we also highlight the applicability of these points to climate-change effects on species interactions in general.
- Vezzulli, L., Brettar, I., Pezzati, E., Reid, P.C., Colwell, R.R., Höfle, M.G., and Pruzzo, C. Long-term effects of ocean warming on the prokaryotic community: evidence from the vibrios. ISME Journal 6(1): 21-30, 2012.
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The long-term effects of ocean warming on prokaryotic communities are unknown because of lack of historical data. We overcame this gap by applying a retrospective molecular analysis to the bacterial community on formalin-fixed samples from the historical Continuous Plankton Recorder archive, which is one of the longest and most geographically extensive collections of marine biological samples in the world. We showed that during the last half century, ubiquitous marine bacteria of the Vibrio genus, including Vibrio cholerae, increased in dominance within the plankton-associated bacterial community of the North Sea, where an unprecedented increase in bathing infections related to these bacteria was recently reported. Among environmental variables, increased sea surface temperature explained 45% of the variance in Vibrio data, supporting the view that ocean warming is favouring the spread of vibrios and may be the cause of the globally increasing trend in their associated diseases.
- Hofstra, N. Quantifying the impact of climate change on enteric waterborne pathogen concentrations in surface water. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 3(6): 471-479, 2011.
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Climate change, among other factors, will impact waterborne pathogen concentrations in surface water worldwide, possibly increasing the risk of diseases caused by these pathogens. So far, the impacts are only determined qualitatively and thorough quantitative estimates of future pathogen concentrations have not yet been made. This review shows how changes in temperature and precipitation influence pathogen concentrations and gives opportunities to quantitatively explore the impact of climate change on pathogen concentrations using examples from ecological and hydrological modelling, already available statistical and process-based pathogen models and climate change scenarios. Such applications could indicate potential increased waterborne pathogen concentrations and guide further research.
- Semenza, J.C., Höser, C., Herbst, S., Rechenburg, A., Suk, J.E., Frechen, T., and Kistemann, T. Knowledge mapping for climate change and food- and waterborne diseases. Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology 42(4): 378-411, 2012.
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The authors extracted from the PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases all articles published between 1998 and 2009 that were relevant to climate change and food- and waterborne diseases. Any material within each article that provided information about a relevant pathogen and its relationship with climate and climate change was summarized as a key fact, entered into a relational knowledge base, and tagged with the terminology (predefined terms) used in the field. These terms were organized, quantified, and mapped according to predefined hierarchical categories. For noncholera Vibrio sp. and Cryptosporidium sp., data on climatic and environmental influences (52% and 49% of the total number of key facts, respectively) pertained to specific weather phenomena (as opposed to climate change phenomena) and environmental determinants, whereas information on the potential effects of food-related determinants that might be related to climate or climate change were virtually absent. This proportion was lower for the other pathogens studied (Campylobacter sp. 40%, Salmonella sp. 27%, Norovirus 25%, Listeria sp. 8%), but they all displayed a distinct concentration of information on general food- and water-related determinants or effects, albeit with little detail. Almost no information was available concerning the potential effects of changes in climatic variables on the pathogens evaluated, such as changes in air or water temperature, precipitation, humidity, UV radiation, wind, cloud coverage, sunshine hours, or seasonality. Frequency profiles revealed an abundance of data on weather and food-specific determinants, but also exposed extensive data deficiencies, particularly with regard to the potential effects of climate change on the pathogens evaluated. A reprioritization of public health research is warranted to ensure that funding is dedicated to explicitly studying the effects of changes in climate variables on food- and waterborne diseases.
- Semenze, J.C., Herbst, S., Rechenburg, A., Suk, J.E., Höser, C., Schreiber, C., and Kistemann, T. Climate change impact assessment of food- and waterborne diseases. Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology 42(8): 857-890, 2012.
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The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998-2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled according to exposure pathways. These key facts (corresponding to approximately 50,000 words) were mapped to 275 terminology terms identified in the literature, which generated 6,341 connections. These relationships were plotted on semantic network maps to examine the interconnections between variables. The risk of campylobacteriosis is associated with mean weekly temperatures, although this link is shown more strongly in the literature relating to salmonellosis. Irregular and severe rain events are associated with Cryptosporidium sp. outbreaks, while noncholera Vibrio sp. displays increased growth rates in coastal waters during hot summers. In contrast, for Norovirus and Listeria sp. the association with climatic variables was relatively weak, but much stronger for food determinants. Electronic data mining to assess the impact of climate change on food- and waterborne diseases assured a methodical appraisal of the field. This climate change knowledge base can support national climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation assessments and facilitate the management of future threats from infectious diseases. In the light of diminishing resources for public health this approach can help balance different climate change adaptation options.
- Hinkel, J., Brown, S., Exner, L., Nicholls, R.J., Vafeidis, A.T., and Kebede, A.S. Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA. Regional Environmental Change 12(1): 207-224, 2012.
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This paper assesses sea-level rise impacts on Africa at continental and national scales including the benefits of mitigation and of applying adaptation measures, considering four scenarios of global mean sea-level rises from 64 to 126 cm in the period of 1995–2100. We find that in 2100, 16–27 million people are expected to be flooded per year, and annual damage costs range between US 5 and US 9 billion, if no adaptation takes place. Mitigation reduces impacts by 11–36%. Adaptation in the form of building dikes to protect against coastal flooding and nourishing beaches to protect against coastal erosion reduces the number of people flooded by two orders of magnitude and cuts damage costs in half by 2100. Following such a protection strategy would require substantial investment. First, Africa's current adaptation deficit with respect to coastal flooding would need to be addressed. DIVA suggests that a capital investment of US 300 billion is required to build dikes adapted to the current surge regime and US 3 billion per year for maintenance. In addition, between US 2 and US 6 billion per year needs to be spent on protecting against future sea-level rise and socio-economic development by 2100. This suggests that protection is not effective from a monetary perspective but may still be desirable when also taking into account the avoided social impact. We conclude that this issue requires further investigation including sub-national scale studies that look at impacts and adaptation in conjunction with the development agenda and consider a wider range of adaptation options and strategies.
- Khan, A.E., Xun, W.W., Ahsan, H., and Vineis, P. Climate change, sea-level rise, and health impacts in Bangladesh. Environment 53(5): 18-33, 20.
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There is increasing evidence that global climate change will have adverse effects on human health, mainly among the poorest populations in the world. Bangladesh may experience some of the more severe impacts because of its unique meteorological and topographical conditions, coupled with its high population density and poor infrastructure. Over the past few decades, Bangladesh has already suffered from harsh climate-related events, which have adversely affected the livelihoods of the people living in environmentally fragile areas. In 2004, almost 50 percent of the total land mass of the country was inundated by flood waters for two months, while in 1998, floods affected approximately 30 million people in 52 out of 64 districts. The country experiences only 1 percent of all cyclones, but accounts for almost 50 percent of deaths from cyclones worldwide. High degrees of "vulnerability" to the impacts of climate change make this population particularly susceptible to adverse health impacts, and threaten development achievements. In this study, Bangladesh is considered as a model country where early effects of climate change are being witnessed. These effects result not only from gradual changes in sea level and temperature but also from increased regional climate variability and extreme events, including more intense floods, droughts and storms. We review some prevalent human diseases linked to sea-level rise, particularly those from newer environmental threats, such as salinity intrusion in soil and water in coastal areas. These human health impacts need to be urgently monitored with appropriate, well-designed, and methodologically sound epidemiological studies investigating climatic variation associated with diseases, combined with modeled scenarios, so that early research results can be used to guide sustainable adaptation measures and public health policies. Finally, we identify the range of adaptation measures in current practice as well as those planned, as a set of actions complementary to national goals of Bangladesh.
- Brecht, H., Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Murray, S., and Wheeler, D. Sea-level rise and storm surges. Journal of Environment and Development 21(1): 120-138, 2012.
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As the climate changes during the 21st century, larger cyclonic storm surges and growing populations may collide in disasters of unprecedented size. As conditions worsen, variations in coastal morphology will magnify the effects in some areas, while largely insulating others. In this article, we explore the implications for 31 developing countries and 393 of their cyclone-vulnerable coastal cities with populations greater than 100,000. Combining the most recent scientific and demographic information, we estimate the future impact of climate change on storm surges that will strike coastal populations, economies, and ecosystems. We focus on the distribution of heightened impacts, because we believe that greater knowledge of their probable variation will be useful for local and national planners, as well as international donors. Our results suggest gross inequality in the heightened impact of future disasters, with 50% of the burden falling on the residents of 10 Asian cities and over 40% falling on Manila, Karachi, and Jakarta alone. In light of these huge asymmetries, we believe that careful targeting of international assistance will be essential for the effective and equitable allocation of resources for coastal protection and disaster prevention.
- Yin, J., Yin, Z., Wang, J., and Xu, S. National assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise for the Chinese coast. Journal of Coastal Conservation 16(1): 123-133, 2012.
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Sea-level rise as a result of climate change increases inundation and erosion, which are affected by a complex interplay of physical environmental parameters at the coast. China's coast is vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and associated coastal flooding because of physical and socio-economical factors such as its low topography, highly developed economy, and highly dense population. To identify vulnerable sections of the coast, this paper presents a national assessment of the vulnerability of the Chinese coast using 8 physical variables: sea-level rise, coastal geomorphology, elevation, slope, shoreline erosion, land use, mean tide range, and mean wave height. A coastal vulnerability index was calculated by integrating the differentially weighted rank values of the 8 variables, based on which the coastline is segmented into 4 classes. The results show that 3% of the 18,000-km-long Chinese coast is very highly vulnerable, 29% is highly vulnerable, 58% is moderately vulnerable, and 10% is in the low-vulnerable class. Findings further reveal that large amounts of land and population will be vulnerable to inundation by coastal flooding from sea level rise and storm surge. Finally, some suggestions are presented for decision makers and other concerned stakeholders to develop appropriate coastal zone management and mitigation measures.
- Lesnikowski, A.C., Ford, J.D., Berrang-Ford, L., Paterson, J.A., Barrera, M., and Heymann, S.J. Adapting to health impacts of climate change: a study of UNFCCC Annex I parties. Environmental Research Letters 6(4): art. 044009, 2011.
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Adapting to the health effects of climate change is one of the key challenges facing public health this century. Our knowledge of progress on adaptation, however, remains in its infancy. Using the Fifth National Communications of Annex I parties to the UNFCCC, 1912 initiatives are systematically identified and analyzed. 80% of the actions identified consist of groundwork (i.e. preparatory) action, with only 20% constituting tangible adaptations. No health vulnerability was recognized by all 38 Annex I countries. Furthermore, while all initiatives affect at least one health vulnerability, only 15% had an explicit human health component. Consideration for the special needs of vulnerable groups is uneven and underdeveloped. Climate change is directly motivating 71% of groundwork actions, and 61% of adaptation initiatives are being mainstreamed into existing institutions or programs. We conclude that the adaptation responses to the health risks of climate change remain piecemeal. Policymakers in the health sector must engage with stakeholders to implement adaptation that considers how climate change will impact the health of each segment of the population, particularly within those groups already considered most vulnerable to poor health outcomes.
- Nisbet, M.C., Malbach, E., and Leiserowitz, A. Framing peak petroleum as a public health problem: audience research and participatory engagement in the United States. American Journal of Public Health 101(9): 1620-1626, 2011.
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Between December 2009 and January 2010, we conducted a nationally representative telephone survey of US adults (n = 1001; completion rate = 52.9%) to explore perceptions of risks associated with peak petroleum. We asked respondents to assess the likelihood that oil prices would triple over the next 5 years and then to estimate the economic and health consequences of that event. Nearly half (48%) indicated that oil prices were likely to triple, causing harm to human health; an additional 16% said dramatic price increases were unlikely but would harm health if they did occur. A large minority (44%) said sharp increases in oil prices would be ''very harmful'' to health. Respondents who self-identified as very conservative and those who were strongly dismissive of climate change were the respondents most likely to perceive very harmful health consequences.
- Cinner, J.E., McClanahan, T.R., Graham, N.A.J., Daw, T.M., Maina, J., Stead, S.M., Wamukota, A., Brown, K., and Bodin, Ö. Vulnerability of coastal communities to key impacts of climate change on coral reef fisheries. Global Environmental Change 22(1): 12-20, 2012.
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Coral reefs support the livelihood of millions of people especially those engaged in marine fisheries activities. Coral reefs are highly vulnerable to climate change induced stresses that have led to substantial coral mortality over large spatial scales. Such climate change impacts have the potential to lead to declines in marine fish production and compromise the livelihoods of fisheries dependent communities. Yet few studies have examined social vulnerability in the context of changes specific to coral reef ecosystems. In this paper, we examine three dimensions of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) of 29 coastal communities across five western Indian Ocean countries to the impacts of coral bleaching on fishery returns. A key contribution is the development of a novel, network-based approach to examining sensitivity to changes in the fishery that incorporates linkages between fishery and non-fishery occupations. We find that key sources of vulnerability differ considerably within and between the five countries. Our approach allows the visualization of how these dimensions of vulnerability differ from site to site, providing important insights into the types of nuanced policy interventions that may help to reduce vulnerability at a specific location. To complement this, we develop framework of policy actions thought to reduce different aspects of vulnerability at varying spatial and temporal scales. Although our results are specific to reef fisheries impacts from coral bleaching, this approach provides a framework for other types of threats and different social-ecological systems more broadly.
- Løvholt, F., Glimsdal, S., Harbitz, C.B., Zamora, N., Nadim, F., Peduzzi, P., Dao, H., and Smebye, H. Tsunami hazard and exposure on the global scale. Earth-Science Reviews 110(1-4): 58-73, 2012.
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In the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a large increase in the activity of tsunami hazard and risk mapping is observed. Most of these are site-specific studies with detailed modelling of the run-up locally. However, fewer studies exist on the regional and global scale. Therefore, tsunamis have been omitted in previous global studies comparing different natural hazards. Here, we present a first global tsunami hazard and population exposure study. A key topic is the development of a simple and robust method for obtaining reasonable estimates of the maximum water level during tsunami inundation. This method is mainly based on plane wave linear hydrostatic transect simulations, and validation against results from a standard run-up model is given. The global hazard study is scenario based, focusing on tsunamis caused by megathrust earthquakes only, as the largest events will often contribute more to the risk than the smaller events. Tsunamis caused by non-seismic sources are omitted. Hazard maps are implemented by conducting a number of tsunami scenario simulations supplemented with findings from literature. The maps are further used to quantify the number of people exposed to tsunamis using the Landscan population data set. Because of the large geographical extents, quantifying the tsunami hazard assessment is focusing on overall trends.
- Arcas, D. and Segur, H. Seismically generated tsunamis. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 370(1964): 1505-1542, 2012.
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People around the world know more about tsunamis than they did 10 years ago, primarily because of two events: a tsunami on 26 December 2004 that killed more than 200 000 people around the shores of the Indian Ocean; and an earthquake and tsunami off the coast of Japan on 11 March 2011 that killed nearly 15 000 more and triggered a nuclear accident, with consequences that are still unfolding. This paper has three objectives: (i) to summarize our current knowledge of the dynamics of tsunamis; (ii) to describe how that knowledge is now being used to forecast tsunamis; and (iii) to suggest some policy changes that might protect people better from the dangers of future tsunamis.
- Venkatachalam, A.J., Kaler, J., and Price, A.R.G. Modelling ecological and other risk factors influencing the outcome of the 2004 tsunami in Sri Lanka. Ecosphere 3(2): art. 18, 2012.
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The 2004 Asian tsunami caused widespread devastation across the Indian Ocean. Damage from the waves was influenced by complex interplay of many factors. Using regression models incorporating different impact indicators (occurrence of inundation, inundation distance, and human deaths), we examined factors that significantly influenced tsunami damage in southern Sri Lanka. Land elevation (which is positively correlated with forest presence), sand dunes and coastal convexity (which deflects waves), were protective factors, in terms of whether the tsunami wave inundated within an arbitrary distance of 15 m inland. Water bodies, saltpans and built-up areas (e.g., roads, development) increased wave inundation distance, while beaches and sand dunes were ameliorative. Built-up areas also increased death toll. Bathymetry, a proxy for wave height and force, was the only significant factor in all three multivariable models. Coastal areas with a steeper seaward bathymetric slope gradient were less prone to inundation and human fatalities, which is consistent other tsunami research. The presence of coral reefs was highly correlated with bathymetric slope gradient, implying a potentially protective role by coral reefs. Many factors showing greatest protective effect against tsunami damage are geographical features that cannot easily be modified. However, some defence factors identified, such as sand dunes, could potentially be protected. Given the wide-ranging ecosystem services, unrelated to tsunami protection, ongoing loss/degradation of natural systems including mangroves (not a significant factor in the multivariable models), could be damaging. This might impede certain future coastal development options in post-tsunami Sri Lanka.
- Terry, J.P. and Goff, J.R. The special vulnerability of Asia-Pacific islands to natural hazards. Geological Society, London, Special Publications 361(1): 3-5, 2012.
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- Goff, J.R., Chagué-Goff, C., and Terry, J.P. The value of a Pacific-wide tsunami database to risk reduction: putting theory into practice. Geological Society, London, Special Publications 361(1): 209-220, 2012.
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The recent 2011 Tohoku Tsunami showed yet again the devastating impact that these events can have on coastal communities. Even prior to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami there had been a growing awareness of the need to document a record of past tsunamis for risk reduction purposes. The bulk of such early databases were based on historical data. Only in recent years have palaeotsunami databases started to be collated. When one considers that the Pacific region accounts for 85% of known historical tsunamis worldwide, it is unsettling that we have only documented 11 palaeotsunamis throughout all Pacific Island countries (PICs). The way forward to enhance our understanding of palaeotsunamis, and to better understand the magnitude and frequency of events from local, regional and distant Pacific sources, is to gather data from each PIC. By collating data from each island it should be possible to map the spatial and temporal distribution of past events over the last several thousand years throughout the entire Pacific region. These data will provide the essential baseline information needed for achieving more effective disaster risk reduction for PICs.
- Kim, N. How much more exposed are the poor to natural disasters? Global and regional measurement. Disasters 36(2): 195-211, 2012.
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This paper proposes a simple indicator to measure the exposure to natural disasters for the poor and non-poor population, in order to assess the global and regional trend of natural hazard and poverty. Globally, poor people are two times more exposed to natural disasters than the non-poor in the twenty-first century. The time trend varies across regions, with poor people in East Asia and Pacific being most exposed to natural disasters, followed by those in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The change of exposure measure over time is decomposed into two factors: a pure exposure change, which could be fuelled by climate change; and a concentration component. The result shows that the total net increase of exposure between the 1970s and the 2000s is driven significantly by the increased concentration of the poor (26 per cent) in disaster-prone areas, whereas the contribution of that factor remains very small for the non-poor (six per cent).
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